October 7 and the Hannibal Directive

Supported

1. Israeli forces used Hannibal orders

The original directive was an anti-abduction procedure for captured soldiers that allowed force even when it put them at risk. The IDF formally withdrew it in 2016. Its name and similar orders resurfaced during the attack. Haaretz’s July 2024 investigation, based on military documents and testimony, reported explicit calls at three military sites, including Erez at 7:18 a.m. At 11:22 a.m. the Gaza Division received an order to stop all vehicles from returning to Gaza. A military source told Haaretz that personnel understood some vehicles might be carrying abducted soldiers or civilians.

The UN commission recorded a tank crew member’s account of firing at a vehicle suspected of carrying abducted soldiers. Its inquiry also identified incidents involving civilian hostages that it linked to likely use of the directive. The records establish that orders were issued and used in some places. Their geographic reach and effects varied, and the order logs cannot establish who was inside each vehicle struck.

Sources Haaretz, The Guardian, UN commission, §§35–37 and detailed findings §§225–229

Supported

2. Israeli fire killed civilians

• Nir Oz · Efrat Katz

  The Israeli Air Force concluded that its helicopter likely killed Katz while firing on a vehicle carrying abductors and hostages. It said the crew could not identify the hostages from the air. The UN commission included her death among the cases it linked to likely use of the directive. IDF, April 2024 · UN commission

• Be’eri · Pessi Cohen’s house

  The UN report’s factual findings say Israeli tank fire killed some or all of 13 civilian hostages. Its conclusion uses “at least 14” for Hannibal-linked deaths overall, whereas the same report’s incident findings say “up to 14” across Be’eri and Nir Oz. The IDF’s July 2024 briefing said tank shrapnel very likely killed one hostage outside, and assessed that the captors killed most of the hostages inside. The two inquiries disagree on the causal toll, and 14 is neither a settled count nor an established ceiling for every incident that day. UN commission, §§36, 96 · IDF, July 2024

• Nahal Oz · Tomer Eliaz-Arava and Dikla Arava

  A January 2025 IDF inquiry found it highly likely that troops misidentified and killed Tomer after he escaped his captors. It also found a reasonable possibility that IDF gunfire killed Dikla in a vehicle carrying abductees. The findings did not establish a Hannibal order in either case. IDF, January 2025

• Nova festival · helicopter allegation

  The UN verified helicopter presence in the area but could not verify that the helicopters fired on the festival site or hit civilians or civilian vehicles there. A viral clip offered as evidence of such fire was geolocated about 10 km from the festival. UN commission · FactCheck.org

Unsupported

3. The IDF probably killed more civilians than Hamas did

There is no reliable perpetrator-by-perpetrator count for the day. AFP’s July 2024 tally, as reported by Human Rights Watch, classified 815 of 1,195 deaths stemming from the assault as civilians, including 79 foreign nationals. The tally includes hostages who died later in Gaza. AFP excluded soldiers, police and local security teams from its civilian count. Some police and local responders without a permanent combat role would ordinarily be civilians under the laws of war, subject to the rules on direct participation in hostilities.

The direct evidence points against the claim. The UN attributed the deaths of 364 people attending Nova to Hamas’s armed wing and other Palestinian armed groups collectively, and attributed at least 18 civilian killings on Zikim beach to Hamas militants. The April 2025 military inquiry gave a separate Nova breakdown of 344 civilians and 34 security personnel killed amid the attack. Those figures use different groupings and overlap. Human Rights Watch, drawing on interviews and verified visual material, found that where it obtained information on cause of death, only a minority of civilian deaths resulted from fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian armed groups, including deaths from Israeli fire. That subset is not a representative statistical sample.

Hamas alone is harder to count. Hamas led the attack and at least four other organized Palestinian armed groups participated. Some killings can be attributed to Hamas specifically. Others can be attributed only to the attackers collectively. The evidence gives no reliable total for Hamas alone or for civilians killed under Hannibal orders. It also supplies no basis for saying the latter probably exceeded either Hamas’s own toll or the toll from the Hamas-led assault.

Sources UN commission, §§16 and 18, Human Rights Watch and AFP tally, Times of Israel’s account of the Nova inquiry

Where the claim goes wrong

• Hasty generalization. Documented cases show that Israeli fire killed civilians. Extending those cases to a larger comparative death toll requires evidence about the other deaths.
• Conflation. An order to stop vehicles, a vehicle being struck, civilians riding in it, and those civilians dying are separate facts. Haaretz reported an internal count of 77 struck vehicle wrecks. The number of hostages in those vehicles is unknown. Friendly fire from misidentification also does not by itself establish that a Hannibal order was used.
• Loaded wording. The quotation marks around “civilians” cast doubt on their status without identifying any misclassified victims.

Sources Haaretz, UN commission, detailed findings §225, Human Rights Watch

Source ratings

Orientation describes each source’s editorial or institutional perspective. Quality ratings apply to the evidence used here.

• Haaretz · Israeli left-leaning newspaper · High. Original reporting uses military records and interviews. Some sources are anonymous and the records do not provide a casualty count. Original investigation · Archived copy · AllSides rating
• The Guardian · UK left-leaning newspaper · High for its account of Haaretz. Identifies its source and preserves uncertainty about casualties. This account is derived from Haaretz. July 2024 coverage
• UN commission of inquiry · International human-rights and accountability mandate · High for documented incidents. An independent investigative body appointed by the UN Human Rights Council. It explains its evidence and uses a reasonable-grounds standard. Limited forensic evidence and inconsistent wording about the 14 deaths reduce confidence in any exact number. Final report, A/HRC/56/26 · Detailed findings, A/HRC/56/CRP.3
• Israel Defense Forces · Israeli state military · High as a record of its findings, qualified for disputed attribution. These internal inquiries have direct access to military personnel and records. The military has a stake in how its own actions are judged. Katz inquiry · Be’eri inquiry · Be’eri briefing · Nahal Oz inquiry
• Human Rights Watch · Human-rights advocacy NGO, nonpartisan · High for its documented cases. It describes its interviews and verification of more than 280 photos and videos. Its cause-of-death evidence covers only some cases. AFP · International wire service, broadly nonpartisan · High for its stated tally. Its database cross-check and classification rules are described by HRW. The tally does not assign a perpetrator to each death. HRW methodology and AFP figures · HRW findings
• The Times of Israel · Mainstream Israeli outlet with an Israeli national focus · High for its attributed summary. Names the military inquiry as the source of the Nova breakdown. April 2025 Nova coverage
• FactCheck.org · US nonpartisan fact-checker · High for this specific video check. Links the geolocation reporting and includes the relevant police and military responses. The finding applies to the cited clip. Video fact-check